Further to the concept discussed in Part 1, regarding the Pick-A-Box Puzzle. There exist on the internet a number of forums debating this issue, and some of the arguments for the final decision of which box to pick, i.e. whether to switch or stick being a 50-50 decision are seductive, to the point where some people are simply unable to see that the choice remaining after a losing box has been revealed is far from even.
How well do we understand Probability? Most of us think we have a fairly good idea of what sort of chance a selection we have made might perform in a race, especially if we have taken the time to incorporate ideas and principles from ‘expert’ commentators.
Whether you do this on paper, or electronically on a computer is not important, although making calculations about staking methods and determining which if any of your bets should be eliminated in future is far more easily accomplished on the computer.
We mentioned earlier that horses are living entities, and also that as humans we are susceptible to conditioning. As a general rule, all living things have patterns of behaviour which they tend to follow.
We wrote this article assuming you are either new to the racing game, or have not enjoyed consistent success in your efforts, so apologies if we have pitched it wrong and please bear with us, as the booklet is still a great read and as you know every little bit counts in this game.
Since 2004, we have been developing our unique philosophy toward racing. Like many philosophers, we have found it useful to jettison some pre-conceived notions, thereby trying to avoid making common errors. In doing this, we have found that the most important element in racing, as in other forms of wagering or gambling, is the concept of Probability.