Sequences are probably responsible for more punters failing than any other factor in racing. In previous articles we have attributed that to the average punter’s failure to correctly assess Probability, but in reality, these two concepts are opposite sides of the same coin.
Archive for year: 2019
There are many punters who battle to make money from tipsters. Usually the tipster is held responsible for not providing enough winners, and there is no question that there are a lot of tipsters out there who should not be in business.
Punters often ask why the keeping of records is considered so important by professional bettors. The answer is simple.
The question of how much an individual should wager presupposes the assumption that there is a level beyond which one is best advised not to go, implied by the word ‘should’.
Punting can be like ocean sailing. Sometimes everything is rolling along smoothly; the wind might be partly in our faces, but we can still feel and enjoy the sensation of moving towards our goal, whatever that might be.
Further to the concept discussed in Part 1, regarding the Pick-A-Box Puzzle. There exist on the internet a number of forums debating this issue, and some of the arguments for the final decision of which box to pick, i.e. whether to switch or stick being a 50-50 decision are seductive, to the point where some people are simply unable to see that the choice remaining after a losing box has been revealed is far from even.
How well do we understand Probability? Most of us think we have a fairly good idea of what sort of chance a selection we have made might perform in a race, especially if we have taken the time to incorporate ideas and principles from ‘expert’ commentators.
Whether you do this on paper, or electronically on a computer is not important, although making calculations about staking methods and determining which if any of your bets should be eliminated in future is far more easily accomplished on the computer.
We mentioned earlier that horses are living entities, and also that as humans we are susceptible to conditioning. As a general rule, all living things have patterns of behaviour which they tend to follow.
We wrote this article assuming you are either new to the racing game, or have not enjoyed consistent success in your efforts, so apologies if we have pitched it wrong and please bear with us, as the booklet is still a great read and as you know every little bit counts in this game.